1.YES HE CAIN. A focus group conducted by Republican pollster FrankLuntz after last night’s first Republican presidential debate in South Carolina gave the clear win to political newcomer Herman Cain. Reporting the results on Fox, Luntz said he has never seen anything like Cain’s breakout performance. The applause meter winner was Rep. Ron Paul , R-Texas, whose enthusiastic supporters loudly cheered the one-time Libertarian Party presidential candidate’s defense of his support for decriminalizing heroin. Meanwhile, presumed heavyweight Tim Pawlenty’s performance struck National Journal ’s Beth Reinhard as lackluster.
2.WAR ON TERROR IS OVER. Osama bin Laden is dead, and his dream ofleading endless legions of jihadists in a holy war against the West has likely died with him. National Journal ’s James Kitfield writes in this week's cover story that the Arab Spring now offers an opposing and far more popular model for the empowerment of Arabs and Muslims. That means the post-9/11 eradefined by the “war on terror,” when combatingterrorism was both a national preoccupation and the central organizing principle of American foreign policy, is ending too.
3.SOMETHING NEW. Osama bin Laden's deathprovides President Obama with that rarest of political gifts, the fresh start. Sunday’s stunning raid doesn’t guarantee Obama reelection; judgments about his impact on the economy will have more influence there, writes National Journal 's RonaldBrownstein. But Obama doesn't have a ton of room to grow; he benefited from only a six-point bounce in post-bin Laden Gallup interviews. That, Hotline editor Reid Wilson writes , is because too many Americans are already wedded to their opinion of the president,giving him less room for a real boost.
4.PAKISTAN FEUD. In response to the raid thatkilled bin Laden, the head of Pakistan’s armed forces demanded that the U.S. withdraw many of its military personnel from the country and warned thatany future raids there would prompt a far-reaching re-evaluation of Islamabad’s ties with Washington. Yet the U.S. wants Pakistan to step up its intelligence-sharing about other wanted militants -- especially bin Laden’s probable successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is thought to be hiding in the country’s lawless border regions. Pakistan has rebuffed those requests in the past and shows no signs of changing its behavior now. American patience,however, appears to be rapidly running out .
5.GASOLINE OFFENSE . President Obama is ratcheting up his campaign to tackle soaring gas prices with atrip to an electric vehicles plant in Indianapolis today. His plan of attack includes funding new biofuels projects and fuel-efficient vehicles. Yet even Obama’s top aides acknowledge that will be a long and arduous process that doesn't fit into a politicalcycle. His efforts could risk falling on deaf ears to an electorate angry about high gasoline prices -- now at $3.98 a gallon -- and Republicansdriving a pro-drilling agenda.
6.WHAT’S NEXT? The defense industry is trying to figure out whatCIA Director Leon Panetta’s plans will be when he takes over at the Pentagon on July 1. Questions abound about what the veteran Washington powerbroker’s spending priorities will be, and whether he will leveragehis years of budgeting and management experience to take an even harder line on Pentagon spending than current Defense Secretary Robert Gates. One thing, however, is certain: After planning the operation that led tobin Laden’s death, he will be extraordinarily popular, which will help him push his agenda through Congress.
7.GOP: WE CAN’T PASS RYANCARE. The Republican effort to transform Medicare into a system of private insurance subsidies has ended, at least temporarily, as Republican leaders acknowledged that political realities had narrowed the range of politically feasible deficit-reduction options. After Cantor said the plan was a political non-starter, Republican leaders spentThursday emphasizing their support for the Medicare proposals included in their budget resolution, while acknowledging that, for now, they don’t have a legislative future. While the shift was likely inevitable—Senate Democrats and the president have made clear their opposition—observers were surprised by how quicklythe tacit recognition came. The budget resolution, authored by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan , R-Wis., was supported by the entire Republican caucus except five members, and Democratic political operatives don’t plan to let anyone forget it.
8.EASIER SAID THAN DONE . Congressional Democrats have more political momentum than ever to repeal oil and gas tax breaks, but it’s much harder to do than the political sound bites suggest. Unlike renewable and ethanol-energy companies -- which must fight every year or two to get Congress to reauthorize their grants -- oil and gasbreaks are spread throughout the entire tax code, meaning they’re hard to isolate and excise. Compromise within industry to index the subsidies to oil prices is possible, but fornow Congress can’t look past the politics to the policy. Meanwhile, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., who released a plan last week to end some of thesubsidies, is inviting oil and gas industry executives to a hearing next Thursday.
9.1,000 CUTS. Republicans have introduced one more billto peel back a piece of the health law. This time, Reps. Charles Boustany , R-La., and Pat Tiberi , R-Ohio, are targeting the so-called “employer mandate” piece of the bill, which requires employers with 50 or more full-time employees to offer adequate health insurance coverage or pay a fine.
10.NO CONFIRMATION. Incase there was any doubt President Obama would have to use a recess appointment to install a director at the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the majority of Senate Republicans made it pretty clear on Thursday.Led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell , R-Ky., and Banking Committee ranking member RichardShelby , R-Ala., 44 senators said they wouldrefuse to confirm any nominee, regardless of party, to lead the consumer agency unless it is converted to a boardor subjected to appropriations. “The president believes that American families who were the hardest hit by this financial crisis deserve an independent watchdog to protect consumers,” the White House responded.
